2025 Housing Market Outlook: Where Are Home Prices Really Headed?

The housing market continues to be a hot topic—especially as media headlines speculate on where prices are heading. But what’s really happening behind the noise?

I'm Keith Walker, your local real estate expert, and in this post, we’ll cut through the hype and break down the real data, market trends, and what buyers and sellers should expect as we move into the second half of 2025.

Let’s start with the numbers. Nationally, U.S. home prices are up approximately 4% year-over-year. After the explosive double-digit gains we saw during the pandemic, this pace reflects a more normalized market—and that’s not a bad thing.

Most leading forecasts—including MBA, Fannie Mae, Realtor.com, and Capital Economics—project price growth for 2025 to land between 1.5% and 4%. These figures represent a market that is cooling, not crashing.

Bottom Line: If you're waiting for prices to fall dramatically, that scenario is unlikely based on current trends and supply-demand dynamics.

Real estate is always local, and California—and especially Silicon Valley—continues to behave differently from national averages.

• Price appreciation across most of California has slowed to around 1–2%

• Inventory levels are rising, but not drastically

• Buyer demand remains steady, especially among millennial and Gen Z buyers

• Silicon Valley markets remain stronger than most, with homes still trading well above pre-pandemic levels

Key Insight: We're seeing price normalization, not price regression. Homes are holding their value, and the market is adjusting to a new, steadier rhythm.

The Supply & Demand Equation

Here’s what’s supporting price stability in 2025:

🏡 Inventory is Increasing

• According to Realtor.com, active listings are up 17% year-over-year nationally

• More choices for buyers = less upward pressure, but still not enough inventory to drive prices down significantly

💰 Buyer Demand is Still Solid

• Younger generations are fueling market activity

• Many buyers delayed purchases due to higher interest rates—but they're ready to jump in if conditions improve

📉 Mortgage Rates Hold the Key

• Rates remain in the mid-6% range, impacting affordability

• However, most experts expect a gradual easing of rates, which could encourage more buyers to re-enter the market

The Long-Term Forecast

Looking beyond 2025, the majority of economists predict steady price growth over the next several years. Here's what top forecasts suggest:

The takeaway: The market is not expected to crash. Instead, it will continue to grow—just at a more sustainable pace.

Advice for Sellers

If you’re planning to sell:

• Price strategically—the market is no longer forgiving of overpricing

• Marketing matters more than ever—professional staging, high-quality photography, and digital exposure are key

• Be prepared for slightly longer days on market, but rest assured: buyer demand is still there

Advice for Buyers

If you’re waiting for a dramatic dip in prices, you may end up waiting too long. Instead:

• Focus on what you can comfortably afford now

• Lock in a rate while monitoring refinance opportunities in the future

• Understand that real estate is a long-term investment—and long-term ownership builds wealth

Final Thoughts

The second half of 2025 promises a balanced market with measured price growth—not a bust, not a boom.

If you're a buyer, seller, or investor, the smartest move you can make is to work with someone who understands the data and the local nuances. I'm here to help you make informed, strategic decisions—without the hype.

📩 Let’s talk if you want to understand your options in today’s evolving market. No pressure, just real guidance from someone who’s here to educate and navigate, not speculate and fabricate.